This article as it can be noticed, is tagged with "Stairway to 2014", the readers have to understand that articles that carry this tag line have an outlook towards the 2014- Lok Sabha Elections. Any article of political importance that includes a perspective to the 2014 general Elections would carry this tag-line.
Elections in Gujarat to decide who would rule one of the most industrialized states was held in 2 phases. The votes were counted on 20th and the results showed that Mr. Narendra Modi, would rule the state for a 3rd consecutive term. The BJP won 115 seats in the 182 seat strong assembly.
The political scenario as of now in the state of Gujarat is more like a one-man show with Mr. Modi donning the character. Literally, no other opposing party could put up a candidate who could challenge and put up a worthy fight against the incumbent leader. The poll in 2012 was more of candidates in the battleground under the brand of Mr. Modi rather than the party’s brand. Though the competitors were able to make a dent in BJP’s vote share, it was not enough to put up a good fight.
Campaign Strategy
The one thing other parties took for granted was the campaign strategy. Mr. Modi took it quite seriously and managed to take part in about 250 rallies in person and 180 others by means of 3D projection of his image. This strategy of reaching out to people in spite of his incumbency could have created an impression on the public. There may have been reasons for such vigorous campaigning of Mr. Modi, one could be to clear his image from the taint of the Gujarat violence in 2002 pertaining to which one of the former minister of Mr. Modi’s cabinet was convicted and sentenced.
With regard to other parties, the campaigning could not have come even close to Mr. Modi’s grandeur in rallies. The Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Congress general secretary Mr. Rahul Gandhi, for instance, campaigned at about 8 and 7 places respectively. The numbers, as one can see, would easily decide the contest. The reason behind the attitude of Congress towards Gujarat might be due to the BJP stronghold in the state for so long that there came a point where the Congress cannot muster numbers to form a government.
Throughout the entire campaign in Gujarat, Mr. Modi had asked the people to come out and vote for him rather than the candidate in the constituency. He personified himself as a candidate in all the constituencies saying that it was for Modi whom they were voting in all the constituencies. There was a high voter turnout of 71.9%, which is nearly 10% higher than the turnout in 2007 assembly polls. This high turnout could have been in favor of Mr. Modi.
Congress claims “Victory”
In spite of losing the elections and managing to get mere 61 MLA’s in the assembly, the Congress claims that they have won. Well, it is not in literal terms, but according to Mr. P. Chidambaram, “If the BJP does not cross 117 and Congress has improved its tally, Congress is a clear winner”. This statement clearly is a self-consolation for the loss in Gujarat. The Congress has also been celebrating victory saying that the party has won in constituencies where Ms. Sonia Gandhi and Mr. Rahul Gandhi had campaigned. It can be a reason to celebrate, but one must not forget that the Congress President and General Secretary had campaigned only in very few constituencies and as in the words of Mr.Modi "nothing had stopped them from campaigning throughout the constituencies".
The Congress tried to make their impression of the people by bringing out “Ghar nu ghar” scheme in their manifesto. This was an appreciable scheme which promises to provide houses for those who don’t have one. But rather than being a constructive, the scheme could have portrayed the party as creating a class difference between the ‘have’s’ and ‘have not’s’.
There is one other flaw in the state Congress party. The congress unlike BJP does not have a leader like Modi, who is capable of batting for the entire party single handedly. This is not only with the Congress, but also for other parties in the state.
Winning patterns
Though the difference in the number of seats won is just 2, there has been a lot of change in the pattern in the BJP’s win. The party has managed to breach the Bharuch district where the Congress could not even ensure a single seat, despite the fact that it was a home turf for Ahmed Patel, the political secretary of Ms. Sonia Gandhi. The BJP managed to win seats from the Congress’s grip in central and south Gujarat. But for BJP’s dismay, 5 of its ministers lost their seats. However, the Congress has the most to worry with the state Congress president, Arjun Modhawadia failing to make it to the assembly.
With the court sentencing a few party functionaries along with a former minister in the 2002 Gujarat violence, the BJP could have been skeptical about winning in constituencies where there are more than 15% Muslim vote count. The party managed to snatch 5 constituencies—which had a considerable Muslim vote bank—from the Congress. In the 2007 elections BJP won 18 such seats, but there seem to have been a hike with winning 24 seats in the 2012 elections, in spite of the BJP fielding no Muslim candidate in this election.
When looked at the overall winning pattern for the last 3 elections, it is noticeable that the Congress are improving in the numbers and the BJP is losing small numbers every year. But this cannot be attributed as a success of Congress in the state or a failure in the part of BJP. However, the pattern can be seen as a very slow crescendo for Congress and an extremely slow diminuendo for the BJP with regard to the 3 previous assembly elections.
Role of Modi in 2014
With a pretty convincing win in Gujarat, there follows a very obvious question of whether Modi would be the Prime Ministerial candidate for BJP in 2014 elections. Supporters of Mr. Narendra Modi were seen holding posters which clearly conveyed the message to field Mr. Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014. Though Mr. Modi has promised the people to serve Gujarat for 5 more years, he seemed to hint his desire to be the Prime Ministerial candidate by asking the people to get used to hearing him speak in Hindi.
The pressure is now mounting in the party’s higher authority as well as RSS to declare Mr. Modi a candidate for Prime Minister on behalf of the BJP. The party although has kept its stance by saying that it has not yet decided on the candidate. There is many a chance for the BJP to consider Mr. Modi as a worthy candidate, as he has driven the BJP to power in Gujarat almost single handedly. Mr. Modi has also ensured the sustenance of BJP in power. Being able to hold on to power in a state for three consecutive terms is not an easy task. This feat has increased the chances of Modi in being a prospective candidate for 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
But there are a few red flags that Mr. Modi has to have a deeper look. Narendra Modi has been accused by the opposition, of being a mute spectator throughout the trials of 2002 riot and also of not giving even a single ticket to Muslim candidate in the Assembly elections. Mr. Modi, in order to have a greater success in the Lok Sabha elections 2014, must brandish his secular views at the opposition.
No comments:
Post a Comment